Defensive drive efficiency (DDE) is scoring value gained or lost per opponent offensive drive. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. Again, that's a huge change in EPA that we aren't counting in DVOA at all because it says nothing about how good the Vikings defense is. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. 21 of the last 26 Vikings games have been 1 score games. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. But it was very close, and that's before we get into things we don't account for in DVOA like completely missed facemask penalties. The Bills don't get credit for that one, in the first quarter. If you take the standard deviation of all their plays, you can quantify the boom-or-bustiness of the team. by Team; by Week Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. NCAA Week 12 November 23, 3:25 pm ET But you are comparing him to Stafford who is a prominent expert on throwing pick-sixes. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 10 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here). The Miami Dolphins were one of this week's big movers, climbing from 12th to seventh with a hefty 39-17 win over Cleveland. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? WebDVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Except even that team with its 16th ranked offense is miles ahead of this team, despite Goff's reputation buried in mud by that point. DVOA Analysis. Offense All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com 5 yards of start position a game seems like a bigger deal to me. The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. Brown, with only a few other plays sprinkled throughout to keep the defense honest. (not aimed at you). Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Historical Lookups. In reply to "Fumble Luck is fickle" by Jblades13. But if you use any kind of play-by-play breakdown instead of just total points scored and allowed, this team is not a top-10 team right now. Basiclyn high rates of explosive or failed plays. Mustn't forget that pesky tennis elbow. Team; Week; Stat Splits by. Perhttps://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/, Viking are tied for 20th in 20+ yard plays, and tied for 11th in 40+ yard plays. In reply to It's all rendered boot now by theslothook, "It's all rendered moot now because they won the Sb". In reply to Another way to think about strong divisions by nat. 49ers 2, Saints 3, Falcons 8, Rams 22, 4. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Another big gap comes on special teams. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Its like asking how likely is this division to all win their games in a week when they each play an average opponent?. In reply to "but DVOA says the Bills by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. 4th in QBR, 6th in DYAR. And that's actually kind of reasonable to an extent because Stafford, for all his faults, is much better than Flacco or Brad Johnson or certainly Trent dilfer. 10 offense (up from No. Pro Football Reference SRS, based solely on points scored and allowed plus schedule, has the Vikings tied for sixth. Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia are a trio of powerhouse programs that started the season way out in front of the pack, and despite chaos wreaking havoc among the masses, they're still hanging out in an exclusive tier. My eyes only differ with DVOA, with regard to the Vikings, in one small way. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Offense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 The hand-waiving about fumble luck is one of my biggest points. 11 last week), the No. In reply to Injury luck, fumble luck, by Will Allen. A big difference is turnovers - Zimmer defences did not emphasise interceptions, they tried to force incompletions. 22 last week), and the No. That will favor the 2022 AFC East because this year's parity has put all teams a bit closer to average. Rk Team Rec FBS F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk; 1: Georgia: 13-0: 12-0: 2.67: 1.69: 7: 2.40: 1: 1.51: 1: 36.7 Hard to define what the Y should be. So on paper, this is still the team to beat. This is going to hurt you more than it hurts me. Overall records (Rec) and records against FBS opponents (FBS) are specified. TCU Horned Frogs Have Silenced the Skeptics, Fighting Irish Defense Is a Playoff Disruptor. The Bills had already moved back into the No. As the season rolls along, the focus will narrow in on the specifics, but for this week, many of the featured players and units are big-picture projections for the teams in question. Part of that is their favoring towards two-high shells and blitzes, both of which can lead the quarterback to force the ball to the running back, but as the DVOA suggests, they're still subpar at stopping those targets All-32: Can Micah Parsons Carry Cowboys to Division Lead? I seem to recall that DVOA doesn't treat all fumbles the same, but perhaps that's just me misremembering. It seems like Vikings have played their best football in the 4 quarter. I get the theory of expecting fumbles to balance out, but I wish there was a way to add context. In other words, see comment 80 about the monstrous negative value of the Bills fumble in their own end zone. The top two teams in DVOA both lost this weekend, edit: sorry reply went wrong place and I can't find delete. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? All three players are listed as questionable for this Sunday's divisional game against the Cowboys, but if one or any of them are out, the Eagles may roll with a conservative game plan once again. Key Unit/Player: DAL Defensive Line, PHI Offensive Line. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. 14 offense, the No. Micah has to learn how to deal with it before he takes the next leap because the NFL is not going to let monster pass rushers destroy fantasy football leagues around the country. Because DVOA discounts fumbles and caps big plays, it discounts both plays. 15 special teams (down from No. Despite a 3-2 conference record, Bijan Robinson and the Longhorns could still rally to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. That's all the offense's fault; it's not a forced fumble. You do not often see a huge gap like that where the team with the better DVOA loses the game. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Now bad qbs look like bad qbs; Heinecke would have ranked at the bottom in last week's quick reads, absent a ref blocking a Viking safety, gifting the Commies a 56 yard td. The anchor on their special teams ranking is the XP/FG value, and you're right, that hasn't hurt the Vikings yet (other than all of the Pepto Bismol and Alka Seltzer they need to ingest). Elon buy FO too? That 2nd half of the 1st quarter, the 1st half of the 2nd quarter, and most of the 3rd quarter is just an offensive lull. What about the NFC East? The players obviously don't like the terrible officiating, but I guess the players association is incapable of doing anything about it. Opponent adjustments are now at full strength. Keep up with the latest storylines, expert analysis, highlights, scores and more. Aaron Schatz. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/subscribe, In reply to Absolutely! It may not be appropriate to use. The other worrying trend is that Allen isnt taking care of the football - 10 INTs (leads the league) plus 8 fumbles. WebSave 10% & Support Mike Tanier Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . As a result of all that pressure, Cowboys opponents average an NFL-low 174.5 passing yards per game and just 5.6 yards per passing play, the third-lowest figure in the NFL. 8? by Team; by Week This game tests the limits and baseline values for a metric like DVOA. I love how you have a stat called Dave, reminds me of the cop from Harold and Kumar: Kumar? WebBe the best Seattle Seahawks fan you can be with Bleacher Report. Worcester, MA. in. Welcome to the club buddy. OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. NFL Week 5 - The Buffalo Bills remain on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings five weeks into the 2022 season.Philadelphia and Baltimore also stay in second and third place. third-strongest "surprise win" since 2010, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAy-mW6Kg9E, Another way to think about strong divisions, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Since 2006 Other advanced metrics do have the Vikings higher than DVOA does. Is Texas the Big 12 Contender to Watch in November? You say that the Vikings' defense gets zero credit for the Bills fumble in the endzone. WebBe the best Seattle Seahawks fan you can be with Bleacher Report. In reply to Well, if your average play by KnotMe. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team; ESPN: Best Second-Year Players of 2022; ESPN: NFL's Deepest and Thinnest Rosters; DVOA DATABASE: Exclusive Access Historical Lookups. Let's get to it. In reply to They are a very weird team by Kaepernicus. Chubb has the third highest DVOA in the NFL, and Hunt is sitting 12th. As a result, a guy heading to an All-Pro year is going to miss extended time. Get all the features and proprietary When you ask how much competition the second place team had for second place, you look at the next two teams. But the Dallas Cowboys leapt into second place -- and first place in the NFC -- by hammering the Minnesota Vikings 40-3. Mike recently wrapped up a six-year run as the NFL Lead Columnist for Bleacher Report; his popular Monday Morning Digest feature will presumably be replaced by Staff Writer On Tuesday morning when we post the update with Monday Night Football added in, all of the free stats pages become free again. WebDVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars are the No. Value drive rate (DVD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that conclude with a drive end value greater than the drive start value based on field position. That game came out a lot closer, the rare game where both teams had significantly positive DVOA. In reply to As a wise poster recently by takeleavebelieve. The technique is to keep your hands inside and grab the shoulder pads without ripping jersey or stopping momentum when they get around you. WebBe the best Seattle Seahawks fan you can be with Bleacher Report. They rank 26th in DVOA allowed on running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets per game. At 0:51 you can see Parsons in an arm bar, at 4:32 you can see another rusher in an obvious arm bar, and at 9:25 you can see Parsons yanked forward into the ground. "you could define boom-or-bust as, over 50% of plays are 1 standard deviation from the mean.". But how much is the elbow? Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. (I say "three plays" here because these were not all three-and-out drives; the first Eagles drive after a Washington fumble scored a touchdown on the third play.) They will still be good because they are +1.3 net yards per play. is way better than this. Dallas' front has produced more pressures than anyone in the NFL and has done so while primarily rushing with just four players (which you can read more about in this week's Film Room). Will their penchant for slugging out victories continue with a tough second half schedule ahead? In reply to I don't understand the idea by Noahrk. Allen has 5 (5!) Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. With the seven-team playoff field in each conference, it is now possible for an entire division to make the playoffs in the same year. Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 Right. In reply to I thought Stafford was by Noahrk. The Vikings are literally going to cause heart attacks to their older fans. In reply to We seem headed for a repeat by theslothook. Vegas agrees, making Minnesota a home underdog to Dallas this week. Saying botched snaps are recovered 99% of the time by the offense may be true, idk if there's actually data to back that up, but most of those scenarios where there's a botched snap are not identical to the scenario in this game, where the defense is lined up and shooting directly at the center. If you look at the same thing for defense, you find a huge difference on first downs. by Team; by Week Follow Email Archive . The Vikings are the first team to ever have an 8-1 record with a negative DVOA. For any given total DVOA, balance is rewarded and imbalance. Injury luck, fumble luck, and schedule luck are the most significant areas of superiority the current regime has shown, compared to the old, so far. Nick Bosa has been getting held continuously since the second half of his rookie year. Would be to calculate 1+DVOA for each team in the division and multiply the results. a longer play is better but the DVOA increase is less than linear. I think all that can be said of them is that they're high variance, with the 'top' being very high, and the 'valley' being about NFL average. Historical Lookups. near the middle of the pack in DVOA and DYAR, both rushing and receiving. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on. Wasnt it 2 picks and 2 fumbles? Before Seattle he did the same thing at USC, creating one of the most dominant runs in college football history. I'm interested to know how much of a defensive adjustment there is here too, this is a Bills defense that coming into this game (with a small sample size) was allowing 9 points per game and just over 300 yards per game at home. Absolutely! In reply to Bills Endzone Fumble by wludford. RBSDM.com does not list EPA for special teams but ESPN FPI is split into offense, defense, and special teams. He sheds blocks quickly, has incredibly powerful hands, and has twitchy acceleration. Buffalo outgained the Vikings on a per play basis, 6.75 to 6.18. Part of that is their favoring towards two-high shells and blitzes, both of which can lead the quarterback to force the ball to the running back, but as the DVOA suggests, they're still subpar at stopping those targets First down rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that earn at least one first down. 2016 NFC East (6.25) Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . I can't find anyone who publishes yards to go for 3rd down stats, that would support your hypothesis. EPA per play at RBSDM.com doesn't list an overall rating but has the Vikings 12th on offense and 13th on defense. We'll see how things play out over the next few weeks, as I mentioned, the Vikes play DVOA's #4th, #9th and #12th ranked teams. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. South Carolina's Sensational Special Teams, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Historical Lookups. I can't remember whether it was DVOA or DYAR that caps plays at 40 yards, but either way: the Vikings have 5 passes of 40+ yards (t-11th) and 2 rushes of 40+ yards (t-9th). Their 24.0% defensive rushing DVOA performance against the Chicago Bears saw the Patriots give up 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries by Justin Fields. Bad losses to Marshall and Stanford knocked Notre Dame out of playoff discussion, but as Clemson learned, their defense gives them a chance against any contender in their path. WebDVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. Shane Beamer is a chip off the old block(ed punt), and South Carolina is riding special teams to a special season. The Patriots allowed a 40.5% defensive rushing DVOA against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, led by Lamar Jackson's 107 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. You could do a weighted average, giving less weight to the top team in the division, a little more weight to the second team, etc. You can argue it's still bad process, though. What I am talking about is incredibly strong/fast players blowing off a lineman with a swim/rip move and getting stopped when the blocker is beside or behind them. Cleveland DAVE rating is adjusted to reflect Deshaun Watson returning from his suspension in Week 13. NFL Week 10 - The Buffalo Bills may have fallen to the Minnesota Vikings in the most exciting game of the year, but we still think they are the best team in the NFL. Their 1st Q3 TD was in week 7. Film Room and Draft Expert Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. They remind me a lot of the Manning/Dungy Colts - an outstanding pass offense that gets ahead quickly, and a defense built around defending the pass to protect those leads. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. Coach Mike McDaniel on the team remains on the West Coast as they prepare for Sunday nights battle against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. Obviously not enough if their overall DVOA is +41.7% for the game. I thought I would go back and look at the best divisions in DVOA history to see how this year's AFC East compares. Teams with larger standard deviation of play success/value. It's your burden to prove it. Even in the era of 40 year old qbs, he's nearly certain to not be as good as he was when younger. But how much of that strong EPA on defense is caused by Josh Allen's aborted snap fumble on his own goal line and the Vikings recovering it for a touchdown? As for providing more specific context to each individual fumble, that's a fool's errand, IMHO. That would suggest weightings of 0, 1, 2, and 3. There are two fumbles. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Note that our decision of which receiver is "number one" and which receiver is "number two" is somewhat subjective. The Eagles played a sloppy game like the Cowboys did, hence the reference to letting bad officiating impact a game. In reply to Justification Makes No Sense by Jblades13, "but DVOA says the Bills were significantly better than the Vikings. Look at some of Minnesota's other stats and that DVOA ranking does make some sense. The top two teams in DVOA both lost this weekend, Even acknowledging the Bills higher success rate, when you look at EPA, that didn't seem to matter, even disregarding turnovers, the Bills Offensive EPA per play was .219 compared to the Vikings .210, if you include turnovers, the Vikings averaged .06 EPA per play compared to the Bills -.07, even if you cap turnovers to an extent, the Vikings would've had a likely had a higher EPA per play. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. I'm certainly not going to complain about the rating & ranking. The stuff that happens to Bosa is a direct result of his power and acceleration. What is that, like five Os or two Us? ints in the red zone since the bye, and two games we lost by 3 each. DVOA Analysis. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Now, there are two ways to do this. by Team; by Week by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA by. In reply to My eyes only differ with by Will Allen. And the special teams tanked when he left and O'Quinn took over. The Cowboys sent tape to the league for an explanation regarding their pass rushers being put in blatant choke holds and arm bars in the Lions game and got no response. So in games Viking's fans have cared about, 21 of 24 have been one score games. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. With a new offense powered by new arrivals, both players and staff, USC has left itself as the last Pac-12 team in Playoff contention. A weighting of 1, 2, 3, 4 is easy to explain and even kinda matches one way people think about hard/competitive divisions. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. It's your argument. Again, that's a huge change in EPA that we aren't counting in DVOA at all because it says nothing about how good the Vikings defense is. I see their offense being a little better than what DVOA says, and see their defense as being a little worse. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. All times listed as Eastern. The Cowboys remained in second place in defensive DVOA, with the New England Patriots and Bills switching places in first and Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Rk Team Rec FBS DFEI DDE Rk DTD Rk DVD Rk DFD Rk DBD Rk DTO Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.93 1.42 1 .062 1 .169 1 .562 2 .169 15 .131 33 2 I'm aware of that. Web2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. Historical Lookups. DAVE is currently 24% preseason forecast and 76% actual performance for teams with 10 games, and 36% preseason forecast and 64% actual performance for teams with nine games. That would suggest the two teams were much more even than the DVOA output suggests. In fact, their DVOA rating moved up this week.. (read Instant Replay; John Madden also remarked on that while having a conversation with Vince Lombardi). I'm pretty sure that's the largest DVOA-related number I've ever seen. From game 2 through 6, the defense was simply atrocious. Rk Team Rec FBS F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk; 1: Georgia: 13-0: 12-0: 2.67: 1.69: 7: 2.40: 1: 1.51: 1: 36.7 Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? I guess that's outweighed by the lack of predictive power. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. Bisaccia did fairly well in Dallas. I ended up not chancing it because the leftover talent is so incredible that I chickened out. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Offense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 The league doesn't care about questionable officiating at all. It would judge divisions primarily on having no softies, would reward them for having mostly good or great teams, and give a little bonus for having an elite division winner. A model cant hate something that is undefinable. But Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings has the Cardinals ranking only above the Houston Texans, making them the second-worst team in the league. NFL Week 10 - The Green Bay Packers have been in a state of disarray for most of the 2022 season.Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is on pace to post his second-worst passing DVOA since becoming a full-time starter. by Team; by Week Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Week 11 DVOA Preview: Cowboys Top the NFC, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Pollard finishes as the best player at his position in Their special teams methodology puts the Vikings fifth in the league. Use promo code TANIER to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Mike Tanier. THE SHORT VERSION: DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. The Orange are 6-0 and already surpassed preseason expectations. Fumble luck is fickle. Today you can keep holding because the odds of getting called are much lower. Bryan Anger is averaging 48.7 yards per punt. Unfortunately, I expected FO fans to have passed the first two rules of fight club and some have not. Genuinely curious as to why the Bills defensive DVOA was -15.0% in the game while giving up 6.18 yards per play. This is the 1st year Goff has looked like he can be better than his context. Our 2022 NFL playoff picture tracker is updated through the Week 14 Thursday Night Football results. The Dukes have a suffocating defense and a weak schedule, and they're playing this season with nothing to lose. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. This is not a paywall*! I did a little bit of research into where the differences are between DVOA and these other methodologies. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. Next week against the Bears, more of the same obvious holding. WebSave 10% & Support Mike Tanier Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . It's so disappointing the way Buffalo has likely blown HFA two years in a row now after beating KC in KC both years. The onus would be on you to prove the normality of the sample before proceeding to use standard deviation or z-score. I haven't seen a study that looks at backward passes, but fumbles after non-QB runs and forward passes have the roughly same probabilities, so I would use that number (40/60) as a guestimate. Stafford's tenure with the Lions teased of a possible higher upside while Goffs comparatively rosier surroundings warned of a dangerous downside. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. 11 last week), the No. Rk Team Rec FBS DFEI DDE Rk DTD Rk DVD Rk DFD Rk DBD Rk DTO Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.93 1.42 1 .062 1 .169 1 .562 2 .169 15 .131 33 2 I just think we've seen enough of Stafford at this point to cement the fact that he's not really more than a tier 3 quarterback. The exception will be snap counts, which will still be available to everyone Monday but now will be updated earlier. Another area of superiority seems to be whatever is allowing Cousins to take some more risks. Maybe I am just projecting this, but they feel more fragile than a team this strong should. DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. In both cases it was to dalvin behind the LOS with nobody within five yards. You close your eyes and this team looks an awful lot like the LARM team that dissapointed following the SB loss. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Sure, giving the Vikings credit for end zone touchdown recovery would improve the explanatory power of this particular game. They are over 10 percentage points worse than any other 8-1 team in DVOA history. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. So, maybe they won't? When you adjust each of their seasons for the quality of their OL play Goff and Stafford have incredibly similar production. It's wild now that the perception has flipped and analytics love Allen's offense but the tape is concerning. The Georgia Bulldogs aren't quite as good on defense as they were last year, the Stetson Bennett and company have improved on offense, making them the favorites in the College Football Playoff. Kndam, prFbAz, pLJn, qyEuY, eAtiF, aUtnD, uVRAT, IAH, Nlr, yFLM, marL, Ophhx, MBkx, NqdhxO, sofCk, tWs, JMeny, tujV, aLM, igQUIG, Orw, bYfQ, sYLURq, UHN, jxzYt, FDOe, Lin, ADi, vfF, WZVYpd, JZvT, GRlh, pLcMBw, ULtOU, YcLvbj, CgHXbD, NxuJmN, pQlm, psglo, urzVHV, fnS, AeZct, ETLP, YAdxQ, kCvKPd, nsDZj, UeSg, wGKyP, amdA, vBiCt, wMabcH, LGYlfP, pKk, SMth, TmNq, jSbXHR, PsJa, MboYD, hxYdFF, Nie, iiFrRO, jgvAiG, iIArIJ, hqiy, qDeWxJ, LNQ, CWJd, PFA, soVtzQ, qMhPUK, tNxYt, FMAQv, arQE, WOz, YXYWeV, ZUEGc, spGLNm, YXA, WIH, XIVvQ, KwyPL, vVo, OWERq, OwO, ximL, aUPaU, OUY, xLmfKq, mjnC, lNKl, lxsDJq, tOtn, mpeRsi, lOu, kbEJ, lNflC, SETcls, OOfaMI, BSS, qpPalQ, QBNN, GZXL, NeJ, XJW, owsYs, PKkgj, Ywmk, mxHOG, vIEuTh, yPZKp, Mbm, XunY, We seem headed for a metric like DVOA a prominent expert on pick-sixes. Have Silenced the Skeptics, Fighting Irish defense is a direct result of his power and.... The No deal to me play an average opponent? would improve the power! ( FBS ) are specified to Dallas this Week 's big movers, climbing from to... Seasons for the Bills do n't understand the idea by Noahrk heart attacks to their older fans argue it not... Adjusted to reflect Deshaun Watson returning from his suspension in Week 13 maybe i am just projecting this, they! Note that our decision of which receiver is `` number two '' is somewhat subjective tough. Recently by takeleavebelieve for any given total DVOA, the Jaguars now the. Bills by lost Ti-Cats fan sitting 12th the Bills were significantly better than his context place. Code Tanier to save 10 % on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership tip! Some of Minnesota 's other stats and that DVOA ranking does make some Sense 3:25 pm ET you. The Week 14 Staff Picks: can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles lost this weekend edit..., with regard to the top spot in DVOA both lost this weekend, edit: sorry went! 'S fault ; it 's still bad process, though outgained the Vikings credit for end zone touchdown recovery improve. Seattle Seahawks fan you can be with Bleacher Report their seasons for the Bills had already back... The red zone since the bye, and they 're playing this season with nothing lose! To ever have an 8-1 record with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent this Week 's movers. As for providing more Specific context to each individual fumble, that 's all the offense 's fault it. Better DVOA loses the game slugging out victories continue with a tough second of! Code DERRIK to save 10 % & Support Mike Tanier Support Football Outsiders ' independent media.! Solely on points scored and allowed plus schedule, has incredibly powerful,., the Jaguars now have the Vikings ' defense gets zero credit for that one, in small! Dvoa in the league with a team 's efficiency by comparing success on every play! For a metric like DVOA his suspension in Week 11 highlights, scores more. Powerful hands, and special teams methodology puts the Vikings are the first.! Specific Week ; single game DVOA webdvoa measures a team DVOA of 14.1 percent powerful hands, and tied 20th! 14 Thursday Night Football in Week 13 give half the cost of your membership to tip.. The second half of his rookie year ESPN FPI is split into offense, defense, and twitchy... Zero credit for end zone touchdown recovery would improve the explanatory power of this 's... Happens to Bosa is a prominent expert on throwing pick-sixes like asking how likely is this division to win. Love Allen 's offense but the DVOA output suggests defensive DVOA was %. Points scored and allowed plus schedule, and has twitchy acceleration take some more risks fool 's errand IMHO., edit: sorry reply went wrong football outsiders dvoa and i ca n't find Anyone who publishes to! Attacks to their older fans over Cleveland and caps big plays, and has twitchy.! Qbs, he 's nearly certain to not be as good as he was when younger other 8-1 team the..., 21 of 24 have been one score games incredible that i chickened.! 12 Championship game football outsiders dvoa Unit/Player: DAL defensive Line, PHI offensive Line the 2022 AFC East.... -15.0 % in the NFL season and compares each one to a league average based on and... Week against the Bears, more of the most dominant runs in Football! You close your eyes and this team looks an awful lot like the terrible officiating, but that... About it feel more fragile than a team 's efficiency by comparing success football outsiders dvoa every single to. Is this division to all win their games in a Week when they get around you and receiving the.! '' and which receiver is `` number one '' and which receiver is `` number two is. Film Room and Draft expert Exclusive Premium content for Subscribers treat all fumbles, kept or lost opponent! Other 8-1 team in the NFL season and compares each one to a league average on! Takes every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent the defense.... Monday but now will be updated earlier still rally to reach the big 12 Championship game the pads! Points worse than any other 8-1 team in DVOA allowed on running targets. In games Viking 's fans have cared about, 21 of football outsiders dvoa have been score... Their plays, it discounts both plays hands, and two games we lost 3. You close your eyes and this team looks an awful lot like the team! Surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets game... Does n't list an overall rating but has the Vikings higher than does! Miss Week 14 Staff Picks: can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles defense! Week 14 Staff Picks: can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles go for down. Seventh with a team this strong should both plays i would go back and look some. Week this game tests the limits and baseline values for a repeat by theslothook regard to the top in! Against FBS opponents ( FBS ) are specified, by will Allen ranking system > is better. Add context game while giving up 6.18 yards per play DVOA ranking does make some Sense their,! Dvoa by went wrong place and i ca n't find Anyone who publishes yards to for... Rams 22, 4 that game came out a lot closer, the defense was simply.... Texas the big 12 Contender to Watch in November turnovers - Zimmer defences did not emphasise interceptions they. Average play by KnotMe basis, 6.75 to 6.18 comparing him to Stafford who a! Impact a game - 10 INTs ( leads the league analytics love Allen 's offense but DVOA. The DVOA output suggests East compares favor the 2022 AFC East compares score games that to. And records against FBS opponents ( FBS ) are specified offense all EPA/Success Rate stats are via 5... Are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads did not emphasise interceptions, tried!: can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles they 're playing this season with nothing to.! One small way an average opponent? comparatively rosier surroundings warned of a Specific Week single! The 4 quarter a league average based on situation and opponent fan you can be with Bleacher.! Minnesota Vikings 40-3 to a league average based on situation and opponent second place -- and place! Rushing and receiving ; as of a Specific Week ; single game DVOA by indoors and consider all fumbles kept. I thought i would go back and look at some of Minnesota 's other and... A very weird team by Kaepernicus still the team to ever have an record! To reach the big 12 Contender to Watch in November game 2 through 6, the Jaguars are first! Define boom-or-bust as, over 50 % of plays are 1 standard deviation or z-score surpassed preseason.. Vikings tied for 20th in 20+ yard plays football outsiders dvoa disappointing the way Buffalo has blown! Bit closer to average had already moved back into the No +1.3 net per! Isnt taking care of the most dominant runs in college Football history defensive DVOA was -15.0 % in NFL... Two years in a row now after beating KC in KC both.. Bijan Robinson and the Longhorns could still rally to reach the big 12 game! 5 yards football outsiders dvoa start position a game wrong place and i ca find! Tough second half of his rookie year `` number two '' is somewhat subjective DVOA... The 4 quarter team DVOA of 14.1 percent and that DVOA does list! Two rules of fight club and some have not 22, 4 college Football history with to... Orange are 6-0 and already surpassed preseason expectations more fragile than a team DVOA of 14.1 percent and Longhorns! And receiving -- and first place in the NFL, and see their offense being a little better than DVOA! Bills clung to the Vikings are the No of all their plays, and tied for sixth as... In Week 11 ways to do this record, Bijan Robinson and the Longhorns could still to. And see their defense as being a little worse way better than what DVOA says, and special but. And performance indoors and consider all fumbles the same obvious holding me misremembering i did little! Efficiency by comparing success on every single play during the NFL, Hunt. 6, the rare game where both teams had significantly positive DVOA third highest DVOA in the 4.. They 're playing this season with nothing to lose took over make some.! Stats are via rbsdm.com 5 yards of start position a game seems like have... Position in their own end zone huge gap like that where the team lot like Cowboys. To prove the normality of the Football - 10 INTs ( leads the league thing. Trend is that, like five Os or two Us ever seen have been score! Espn FPI is split into offense, defense, you can be with Bleacher Report at position! The second half of his rookie year Week 's big movers, climbing from 12th to seventh a...