Stafford is also a decent value pick for MVP, although probably not the best. Better than throwing your money away at a running back, at any rate! Browns vs Bengals Prediction & Pick. Vincent Verhei: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. The 2019 team had a better point differential than the 13-3 Packers did. And while Kingsbury did just sign a new extension, the Cardinals also made Murray the highest-paid quarterback in the league and, well, there's no salary cap for coaches. I don't have much faith in the Bengals this year as a team, but I do think their passing offense from a numbers point of view are going to be great. Aaron: See, now I feel pressure to go with a really big longshot. What Garoppolo is is effective, clutch (the Niners were fifth in offensive DVOA in the second half of games and seventh in late and close situations), and better than eitherMason Rudolphor Haskins, currently the Pittsburgh quarterbacks. would have to be Trey Lance, who was neither injured nor bad last year. Brown. Very fun at parties, I swear. Its one youve seen over and over again. Bryan: I have been looking for odds on Sammy Womack everywhere, because if I don't get one homer pick in these things, I start to break out in hives. In reply to The Bucs lost to a terrible by Cheesehead_Canuck, Very reasonable take to have! Plus the larger organization. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Bryan: This award comes down to which defensive players, in any given season, are just about as good as Aaron Donald. Our projections love the Saints' defense. The real issue here is Football Outsiders pitching this as a bold move. Thoseleaders and top twos are all still around. 2022 Week 14 Steelers Vs Ravens Live Update And Discussion Thread First Half, Kenny Pickett Obviously Befitting The 1st-Round Pick They Took Him With, Ravens HC Says. Additionally, if you'd like to donate above and beyond the ad-free option, you can donate via PayPal as well. In case you have missed it, here it is. Their pass defense ranks 23rd in DVOA, and they have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to receiving running backs (28th DVOA). New Orleans sits No. And this line has swung FIVE points in the direction of the Lions since the books opened, which should tell you that Vegas wins big if the Vikings win. How would you react if a boxing judge were suggesting picks in an upcoming show for which they were judging? A lot of that opinion stems from the Bucaneers offensive ineptitude, as Tampa Bay sits just 27th in points per game despite its offense ranking out Top 10 in Passing DVOA at Football Outsiders. For starters, backup quarterback John Wolford may not start due to a neck injury. I know the Tyron Smith injury has everybody spooked right now, and it certainly introduces a lot more uncertainty into the team, but he was hurt last year as well and they scuffled their way through. These specific odds all come from either DraftKings or Bovada, and were all correct as of time of writing. For the opening salvo of Week 14, the Los Angeles Rams will play host to the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football. There is no other real value on the board. Our NFL predictions call for changes in the final rankings over the next few weeks. Bryan: My longshot pick is Khalil Mack, only because there are enough skill position players who are going to put up gaudy fantasy numbers that Mack might get a little lost in the shuffleespecially if he ends up playing second fiddle to Joey Bosa on a strong Chargers team. Especially because he's a showy coach, in that a lot of attention gets paid to his fourth-down decision-making and general aggressiveness. But the Rams are 31st in DVOA against WR1s, and you could argue that Adams is the best WR1 going right now. Tampa Bay appears to be the class of the NFC South, according to the NFL odds to win the division, but sharp action isnt buying into the Bucs, at least as it pertains to this prime-time tilt. When gambling is legalized in Massachusetts, I will never place a bet on any AP award. Covers Consensus is showing 54% of picks on Tampa Bay as of Sunday morning. And then there is the matter of Kirk Cousins. L.A. is ravaged by injuries and has lost six Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. We know that opponents will also need to pay attention to Jaylen Waddle. Aaron: I think it's more likely that Cooper Kupp puts up another year of fantastic receiving numbers than it is that Jonathan Taylor can match last year's rushing numbers. Goodbye, Lovie Smith (+4000). You also have two franchises rooted in defense that know each other playbooks inside and out. - the offensive line should greatly improved this year, In reply to Where are the new Scramble articles for the 2022 season? They have also scored more at home, with Succop perfect on extra points this year (15-for-15). Says something about bettors, methinks. Akers is now not only sharing touches with Williams but also WRs Brandon Powell and Tutu Atwell, who combined for 68 yards on seven attempts in Week 13. Cale Clinton: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. 1 seed in the NFC! Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Plus the coaches. We noticed your adblocker is on. Vincent Verhei: Philadelphia Eagles (+200). The lookahead line, before the events of Week 12, had this spread set at Tampa Bay -6.5. I think the Packers taking a step back can be supported with Adams being one of several things (namely it being hard to keep winning 13 odd games each season being the biggest reason) but based on the interwebs one only hears about Adams as being THE reason. Bryan Knowles: Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) over Las Vegas Raiders. With a healthier offense this time around, our NFL betting picks expect lots of opportunities for kicker Ryan Succop. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Washington Commanders (+4000) Sometimes, gambling advice is objectivelike in the NFL picks you get with FO+, for instance. 2 seed (in spite of their relatively poor DVOA) because they have banked so many wins. The comparison to a boxing judge just isn't a good fit. You name the available quarterback, the Steelers have probably been connected to them at some point this offseason, much to the exhaustion of the fan base. This year, though, Aaron's here to help make his picks, and he actually has one of the AP's votes. Bryan: It has been 10 years since a non-quarterback won MVP, when Adrian Peterson rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2012. And our third is our favorite longshot, someone with long odds that we think could well end up surprising people, if the chips fall the right way. Seems like 75% analytics, 25% narrative. Much more than that seems difficult. Having Mahomes as the consensus QB1 seems an odd thing to assume given how much his PFF grade cratered last year: 2018: 93.2 The Colts of all teams were above them. Their 5.5% DVOA was their best since Week 6, and they scored a go-ahead touchdown with 3:07 left to play. Los Angeles +6 saw minor shuffling of the vig and you could make the argument that giving Mayfield reps on a short week in this system would actually be detrimental to L.A., considering Wofford and Perkins at least know the playbook. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings are seventh in situation-neutral pace, and the Lions are eighth. Tampa Bay and Los Angeles have better DVOA projections. I just looked at the upset board and wasnt as in love with the Jags as my colleagues, so I decided to go against the 7th round rookie making his first career start, Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Vincent Verhei: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL. Tampa Bays offense is in a much better place than it was back in September, with the receiving corps healthier and this matchup coming at Raymond James Stadium. That went away just fine starting in 2001. The NFC North battle will also likely be played at a blistering pace. Bryan: Again, trying to be contrary and not just take Brandon Staley seems like arguing for the sake of argument; there's a reason he has become the consensus choice. The Raiders have a horrific defense, but the Rams wont be able to take advantage of that. So I guess that I think Mahomes at +900 is still the best value, although you can probably talk me into Russell Wilson at +1400 since he'll get all the credit if the Broncos can somehow win the AFC West. Aaron: Every year, there's always the possibility of Patrick Mahomes just going completely HAM on the NFL. But he is good in a structured system and could play well in a Matt Canada attack, and teammates seem to genuinely like the guy, so he could step into the locker room right away and provide leadership. Also, it's Matt Rhule. Looking to bet on some NFL action? In reply to They aren't necessarily a by Aaron Brooks G. The numbers don't necessarily say that the Eagles will win the NFC. So whatever gains on offense might be offset by slippage on the defense. Gardner won't have the same opportunities, considering no one threw at him all preseason long, but someone will throw at him eventually. I think he can easily top 61.5 yards with Mike White throwing him the ball. When I placed a few bets in Las Vegas last year, I also did not place a bet on any AP award. Sign Up Now. He's way, way ahead of any of the other options that are above +5000. And it's disappointing that someone of his talent couldn't just take the job and run with it from Day 1. Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting. San Francisco 49ers (+500) They aren't necessarily a ton behind. If all three of the Chargers, Vikings, and Eagles win their divisions, I think Sirianni finishes third in that grouping, but he's right up there, maybe just a half-step behind your front-runners. Due in part to Cousins and the salary situation they found themselves in; they were stealth all in after their NFC title game appearance; a veteran heavy team with Cousins that suddenly had to retool overnight but because Cousins is far from a bad qb; the results were mediocre. I also challenge that "their division is weaker than . Maybe 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns for a No. And remember what a transcendent prospect Trevor Lawrence was, the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. Bryan: OK, not the Ravens, I get it. Heading into the weekend, DraftKings was reporting 64% of the bet count on the home favorite, but 54% of money riding on the Saints. Koko the Monkey is easily the most accurate of the three systems. over .500? There are multiple elements of coaching. That short number has remained relatively steady all week, with some brief dips to 40 points seeing buyback on the Over and the number sitting at an industry consensus of 40.5 as of Sunday morning. Yes, he is good for a couple of what the heck was that? Aside: PFR is still using "SDG" as the team code for the Chargers. And yet, he is the consensus pick to lead the league in yards, TDs, and win MVP. Its probably why he fell in love with Jimmy Johnson. Garoppolo was 10th in Football Outsiders DYAR (total value) metric in 2021 higher than [Josh] Allen, [Joe] Burrow andRussell Wilson. Ask Kyle Shanahan (35-16 with Garoppolo at the helm, 8-28 without him, counting playoffs) about his value, Weintraub writes. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Baker, in theory, is a massive upgrade over Darnold who probably was the worst non rookie starting QB in the league last year. Temporibus autem quibusdam et aut officiis debitis aut rerum necessitatibus saepe eveniet. And GB has a prety solid player at QB. My random sample size is a few podcasts along with sites like FO. Full methodology . He's going to come back not only from injury but from last year's dismal playoff performance. With this being a tight divisional matchup between two teams that know each other very well, pro bettors felt the spread was giving the Buccaneers far too much credit than what their current form warranted. Pittsburgh has some interesting young pieces on offense Najee Harris,Pat Freiermuth,Diontae Johnson who Garoppolo can make better. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers. Uh, the "nobody believes in us" card is fair, just as it was more or less considered fair for Roethlisberger's crew during the '10 season where they made the SB. Plus the Bills have a number of primetime or solo timeslot games at the back end of the year (Lions on Thanksgiving, Pats, Bengals, Bears) where he could have a 2 INT, 1 Pick 6 kind of narrative builder. Am planning on doing the same with the Yankees in the spring. The Bucs are 22nd in Red Zone DVOA and are scoring on only half of their tries inside the opponents 20-yard line. However, Wofford showed flashes of brilliance against a Seahawks suspect stop unit last weekend and the run game is getting a massive uptick in action, with L.A. going from one of the lightest rushing attacks to a playbook handing off more than 50% of snaps over the last three contests. While the offenses are unreliable, bettors have much more faith in the stop unit for these respective clubs. Copyright 1995 - 2022 While it would not be a first-round bye, they would still have a reasonable path to the NFC Championship Game, particularly if they can avoid Dallas in the divisional round. Of course it's Matt Rhule; it has to be Matt Rhule. And then for Garrett. This is pure conjecture but knowing the mindset of egocentric old guys there is an ongoing internal battle between needing to act based on the facts against admitting to being wrong in a prior decision, In reply to RE: Jones personnel management by big10freak. Giving the talent a good plan to execute. Minnesota Vikings (+650) They cannot run the ball or stop the run. Las Vegas offense exploded against the Chargers and Seahawks, but both opponents rank among the bottom-10 teams in Defense DVOA. I personally looked at that roster and felt like they were overachievers all things considered. So I too will go with Brandon Staley as my favorite here. Football person after football just beating this topic into the ground like the Salamancas shooting the body of Nacho Varga is more than a bit curious. My head hurts but I can see it. The forecast for Monday night is calling for perfect prime-time conditions with clear skies and little to no wind come the 8:15 p.m. God knows we paid enough money for him, and we need him to lessen the pain of being w/o Chris Godwin. Bryan: I'll side with your Vikings optimism here for my longshot. This time around, things will be different, because this is a different Mike White. For starters, this prediction is neither bold or outside of the box, considering its been recycled time and time again this offseason. But some will go to Cousins, and at +5000, or a 2% implied probability, that's good enough for me! Im not sure with their division. Regardless of win/loss records or the state of the NFC South, Monday Night Football between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a monster matchup that will define the division and the path to the playoffs. Philadelphia clearly has the best chance of winning the conference given their inside track to the first-round bye, but Minnesota seems like a lock for the No. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. surely? That was a small sample size there, and he's better than that. Which might be good for the Bills in the playoffs, having had to sharpen their skills against superior competition, but it makes them somewhat less likely to even make the playoffs in the first place. Totally agree with Carl on the value part. Aaron: Anyway, we said yesterday that I'm driving the Jameis Winston bandwagon, so let's go with Winston here as well. Imagine that the other three teams end up with losing records. That's not the most important part of coaching, necessarily, but it is one of the most visible, and having success in a visible way is a great way to garner attention and votes. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. It's one thing for Brock Purdy to take over midgame and keep the wheels from falling off. What if Kenny Pickett is good? Bryan: You're right when you say that rookie quarterbacks are the best choices for rookie of the year, when they play. They cannot throw deep, as Kyler Murray has some of the worst deep attempt splits we have ever seen. It's hard to know if he can take tackles away from Foyesade Oluokun, but if he can, he could put up big (somewhat empty, but big) tackle numbers. I think for a non-QB to win you need a perception of Value, since a QB will always win actual value. If either of those things happen, the head coach in question is a very good Coach of the Year candidate. If the Bills slip up, I really like the Ravens to come out of the AFC with the bye week, as the AFC West continues to murderize each other throughout the year. Editors' Note: These lines fluctuate quite regularly and can differ from site to site. We know that Justin Herbert is the kind of quality quarterback who can win a Super Bowl title. And what if the other 49 voters who are not me actually pay attention to things like cornerback charting stats and evengasp!PFF grades and realize how good AJ Terrell is? Garoppolo is hardly prime Roethlisberger, but he should provide well above-average play at the position while Colberts successor hunts for Big Bens successor.. CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. Officially, the Cardinals rank 30th in DVOA, but I think that's giving them too much credit. But it is possible he could put up another Tyreke year. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Check out all of Caesars Sportsbooks best promotional codes here. Buccaneers. New Orleans, which forced the Bucs to go 5-for-17 on third downs in Week 2, ranks out 12th in third down conversion defense and has the third lowest touchdown rate allowed in the red zone (47.06%). I've been assured by Vikings fans that Zimmer was a bad coach; but I dont think he was. See what changes the Buffalo Bills made to their roster this past off-season along with predictions on their best and worst case They're a good, logical pick for best value. 1 seed thanks to that schedule, and from there who knows? As for O'Connell versus Staley, I think you're right if both teams end up as rough equals. He had the college production and great measurables and he's in a good situation where he can be the top pass-rusher and get plenty of snaps. Yes, we have the Chargers slightly ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs this year. Opt-In Now, B) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Aaron: My favorite "what is he coming back from?" Double your odds! They're our simulation's favorite, they're the sportsbook's favorite, and they're mine, too. We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. How likely is Dallas to start 2-8, though, absent another major Dak injury? Don't even know if the personnel is a fit for the new scheme. I also find it amusing how the name of this one has changed over the yearsit went from First Coach Fired to First Coach to Lose Job and now First Coach to Permanently Leave, as sportsbooks try to find a polite way to allow people to spend money on coaches they think are very bad. Aaron: Agreed, Hutchinson is the favorite here. Of COURSE! Las Vegas has put up 27 and 37 points in regulation the past two weeks and sits ninth in EPA per play during their three-game run. The Buccaneers edged NOLA 20-10 back in Week 2, with eight of those points coming off the foot of Succop. Raiders vs Rams Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Akers Bottled Up by Silver and Black, Dolphins vs Chargers Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Chargers Can't Climb Hill, NFL Week 14 Odds and Betting Lines: Jets vs Bills Headlines Busy Sunday Slate, Patriots vs Cardinals MNF Prop Bets: Parker Sees an Increased Role on Prime-Time, Patriots vs Cardinals Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Henry Answers the Call, James Conner MNF Spotlight: Player Props for Monday Night Football Week 14, Top FanDuel Promo Code Gives UP To $1,000 for Dolphins vs Chargers on Sunday Night Football. In reply to I think Jerry has a by theslothook. I will note that BackCAST didn't like him at all, but BackCAST isn't coaching the Houston Texans. Conversely, Im not sure if the Raiders will take advantage of the Rams defense. Aaron: There has been a lot of talk about Justin Jefferson in the "Cooper Kupp role" with Kevin O'Connell bringing the Sean McVay offense over to Minnesota. The division strugglesCincinnati is more like they were in the regular season than the playoffs; Jackson doesn't find his 2019 form in Baltimore; Cleveland, is, well, Cleveland. Tyreke all along! Aaron: I'm going to go with Robert Woods at +5000 as my longshot. My best bet: Cam Akers Under 45.5 rushing yards (-120). Aaron: I'm going to go three out of three on wide receivers. But more importantly, who would you pick over them? 5. This site doesnt even pick him to win his division. Of course, Im talking about the Steelers potentially trading for Garoppolo, snagging him away from the San Francisco 49ers, which happened to be the prediction from FOs Robert Weintraub. If the Chargers improve like everyone thinks they will and make the playoffs for the first time since 2018, Staley is going to get lots of love. I guess it's in part because their conference is weaker at the top, and inside the AFC, their division is weaker than at least the West and the North. In reply to AP won because of a by theslothook. ? throws per game. I also question if the Bills secondary can hold up enough to secure a top seed. Obviously, you don't get points for being ahead after 57 minutes, but they looked like an actual team for the first time in months. With slightly better odds than Kupp for Offensive Player of the Year, that makes Jefferson my best value. he has not led in any major statistical category or been in the top two of MVP voting since 2018. Be sure to also check out our three favorite MNF player prop picks, as well as our three favorite Tom Brady spotlight props for this matchup. Where's the value for you in the NFC championship odds, especially now that it looks like Garoppolo could return during the playoffs? Aaron: I hereby promise not to waste any of my votes in an effort to make my preseason picks seem more accurate. But on paper, at least, they seem to be the best put-together team in the league. But more importantly, the Rams are one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, ranking fifth in Football Outsiders Rush Defense DVOA and first in RBSDM.coms Expected Points Added allowed per rush. O'Connell is brand new. Jackson Roberts: Davante Adams, WR, LV. In reply to The Vikings big problem, as by Aaron Brooks G, but the Vikings are rarely really bad and often better than you'd think, So true! Dallas Cowboys (+280) Statistical model by Nate Silver. Jacksonville can lean on one of their defensive strengths in this game: the Jaguars have four straight games with a negative rushing DVOA as Derrick Henry comes inoff a string of poor performances. Only Rogers and Brady have the publics trust to match Mahomes' mean efficiency and both are much much older. 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